Global Warming to Increase Heat-Related Deaths in Little Rock
Global Warming to Increase Heat-Related Deaths in Little Rock
Extreme heat will claim 216 by mid-century, according to expert analysis
LITTLE ROCK – The death toll in Little Rock will increase from about 11 to nearly 20, resulting in 216 additional heat-related deaths by mid-century as global warming drives up summertime temperatures, according to a new report conducted by Applied Climatologists, Inc. experts Dr. Laurence Kalkstein of the University of Miami and Dr. Scott Greene of the University of Oklahoma.
The study’s examination of twenty-one U.S. cities found that 23,160 additional heat-related deaths would occur due to global warming-induced temperature increases. The average summer season would see a doubling of heat-related deaths, going from about 908 heat-related deaths per summer to almost 1,900 by mid-century.
“This scorching summer has shown that heat can be deadly and this analysis puts a focus on the additional mortality warming can bring,” said Don Richardson, Director of the Arkansas Climate Awareness Project. “We need Congress to enact federal policy that cuts our global warming pollution 80% by 2050.”
The report uses two measures to show the likely changes. The first measure pinpoints the change in “increased mortality days,” which are days that exceed a city’s temperature threshold for excess mortality. In Little Rock that heat threshold is 104 degrees Fahrenheit and the city currently experiences eight days above that threshold, increasing to 16 by mid-century.
The second measure looks at deaths that occur once the temperature threshold is exceeded. Little Rock currently experiences an average of 11 heat-related deaths per summer. That is projected to increase to about 20 by mid-century.
The prolonged high temperatures of future heat waves will impact aging baby boomers the most, with young children, people with certain medical conditions, and people who work or exercise outdoors also being at elevated risk. In addition, the urban poor, many of whom do not have air conditioning and lack access to air-conditioned public places, are vulnerable to heat-related illnesses.
“We must commit to cutting our global warming pollution by 80% by 2050 to avoid the worst effects of global warming,” said Richardson. “Thousands of additional heat deaths are just one of the devastating impacts that can result from a failure to take action now.”
The study’s findings are consistent with a 1997 scientific study by Drs. Kalkstein and Greene on the relationship between changing climate and mortality in large U.S. cities, published in “Environmental Health Perspectives,” which also found that populations in mid-latitude cities tend to be those most affected by temperature changes. As a result, the increases in mortality during heat waves are generally higher in the northern cities. The study was conducted through Dr. Kalkstein’s firm, Applied Climatologists, Inc.
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This report was released in a media event:
WHAT:
Release of the study that finds Heat-Related Deaths in Little Rock to Increase with Global Warming
WHO:
Don Richardson, Director, Arkansas Climate Awareness Project
Dr. Mark Krain, Professor of Gerontology at UALR
Mayor Mark Stodolla, City of Little Rock
Mrs. Hattie Daniels, ACORN and elderly asthma sufferer
Dr. David Lipschitz, Director of Institute on Aging at UAMS
WHEN:
Wednesday, September 5, 2007 at 9:15 AM
WHERE:
The Bailey Alumni and Friends Center on the campus of UALR. From I-630, take South University exit. At 28th Street go Left into UALR. Bailey Center is on right near Chancellor’s home.